THE APPLICATION OF SCENARIO PLANNING FOR MANAGING LOAN GROWTH IN COMMERCIAL SEGMENT OF BANK DJUMANTARA
Bank Djumantara’s is one of state owned enterprise which revenue mainly comes from credit that generated from its segments such as corporate banking segment, commercial banking segment, retail segment, others. The target market of Commercial Segment are medium sized companies, therefore this segment...
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| Format: | Theses |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Online Access: | https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/74724 |
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| Institution: | Institut Teknologi Bandung |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Summary: | Bank Djumantara’s is one of state owned enterprise which revenue mainly comes from credit that generated from its segments such as corporate banking segment, commercial banking segment, retail segment, others. The target market of Commercial Segment are medium sized companies, therefore this segment has the highest opportunities, the broader scope of borrowers and the broader scope of industry sector. Whereas they are quite sensitive towards changes of external factors. In 2021 Commercial Banking Segment contributes the lower Net Profit Margin and higher Non-Performing Loan (NPL) compare to other segment in Bank Djumantara. The High NPL also happen in other banks that have Commercial Segment such as in Bank BNI and CIMB Niaga, As NPL in Commercial Segment in 2017-2021 are higher than compares to in Corporate Banking Segment and Bank-wide. Although promised High return Commercial Banking Segment comes with high risk, which indicated a significant issue in managing loan in commercial segment in banking industry.
The purpose of this research is to develop a scenario planning to support commercial banking segment of Bank Djumantara to develop new strategy to manage loan growth for the next 5 years. Through scenario planning, Bank Djumantara will be provided with multiple plausible future, hence they can adapt quickly amidst the future that full of uncertainties. The key focal issue of the research is how the loan growth in commercial banking segment in Bank Djumantara over the next 5 years. This research will be conducted through qualitative research methodology through three part of in-depth interview that involved eight experts from commercial segment in Bank Djumantara.
The result of the in-depth interviews that has been conducted with each of the experts, multiple driving forces were identifies which are: Economic Climate, Commodity Price Fluctuation, Exchange Rate Fluctuation, ESG enforcement, Government Policy and Regulations, Fintech Disruptions, Global Political Stability, Pandemic and Epidemic, Government Spending on Infrastructure, Reference Rate. To identify the critical uncertainties, during the interview, the experts were asked to score the driving forces. The research found that the critical uncertainties are economic climate and ESG Enforcement. Based on these findings will develop 2 x 2 matrix that describe the future challenges in commercial banking segment and develop new strategy and early warning signal as a tool to alert commercial banking segment of Bank Djumantara which scenario that most likely to happen.
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