THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON FLOOD AREAIN A SMALL CATCHMENT (CASE STUDY: PASTEUR-PAGARSIH,BANDUNG, WEST JAVA)

• Main Author: Sholeh Sianturi, Ahmad
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Geologi, hidrologi & meteorologi
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/74881
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Climate change can contribute to the increased occurrence of disasters. One of the disasters that can be caused by climate change is hydro-meteorological disasters, such as floods. Urban floods can result in significant losses as they disrupt mobility and can damage city infrastructure. Therefore, mitigation measures are needed to minimize the potential impacts. The objective of this study is to assess the extent of the future impacts of such disasters. This research will utilize observational data from the Bandung Geophysical Station, climate model output from CORDEX-SEA, and land cover and soil data as parameters for the hydrological model. Additionally, data from the River Basin Management Agency (BBWS) will be used for calibration. The study area covers from Pasteur to Pagarsih, which falls under the small catchment category. The data will be processed using bias correction (basic quantile method) and without bias correction (return period ratio method) to represent future rainfall patterns. Subsequently, the processed data will be used to construct return periods using the Gumbel distribution. These return period inputs will be employed in hydrological simulations (using GSSHA) to depict future hydrological conditions. The results of the climate model output, processed using both bias correction and without bias correction methods, will be used to generate return periods with the Gumbel distribution. The return periods from each method indicate an increase in rainfall ratios. The two-year return period from observational data will serve as a reference in this study to demonstrate future changes. The resulting rainfall values closely approximate the average rainfall values that have caused floods in past events. Furthermore, the hydrological simulations also show an increase in water discharge ratios and water levels in the study area, specifically in the Pasteur- Pagarsih region of Bandung, West Java.