SCENARIO PLANNING OF ISLAMIC BANKING INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT IN INDONESIA

• Main Author: Anggar Perbawa, Graha
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/75903
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Islamic banking has become known in Indonesia since the operation of Bank Muamalat Indonesia, which was initiated by the Association of Indonesian Muslim Intellectuals (ICMI), the Indonesian Ulama Council (MUI) and the government, in 1992. Since then, Islamic banking has continued to grow both in terms of the number of institutions and asset. It turns out that the large number of Islamic banking players does not necessarily/significantly encourage the growth of the market share of Islamic banking assets to total bank assets in Indonesia, which has reached 7.03% (as of August 2022). The purpose of this research is to provide a strategy using scenario planning for the development of the Islamic banking industry in Indonesia in order to add insight and alternatives for all relevant stakeholders. This research will use a qualitative research methodology that uses primary data and secondary data. Scenario planning was developed based on the results of an analysis of the driving forces which are considered as critical uncertainties obtained from analysis using Porter's 5 Forces framework, PESTEL and SWOT (Strength, Weakness, Opportunity, Threat) analysis which were then discussed through in-depth interviews with respondents to determine the most critical (Critical Uncertainties). The focus of the main issues that have been identified is "How will the market share of the Islamic banking industry in the next 10 years face the current and future challenges?" with driving forces namely government support, development of financial technology/crowdfunding, prices and services, development of the middle class, limited infrastructure, sustainable finance, regulations, halal ecosystem, digital banking, internet penetration, product uniqueness, reference interest rate, level of financial literacy and inclusion Islamic, conventional banking industry, and Indonesia's economic growth. Based on the results of interviews and analysis, two driving forces were obtained which constitute critical uncertainties, namely government support and regulations as well as prices and services. From these two critical uncertainties, 4 scenarios were then compiled, namely Fast and Furious, Imperfect, The Survivor and Skyfall.