SCENARIO PLANNING OF PLN INDONESIA POWER IN 2030: TO BE A LEADING GREEN AND SUSTAINABLE POWER GENERATION COMPANY

• Main Author: Ahmadi, Hasia
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/75911
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

In 2023, PT PLN transformed its subsidiary PT Indonesia Power into PT PLN Indonesia Power, a sub holding company focused on electric power generation. These moves increased PLN IP's power generation capacity to 21 GW, making PLN IP the largest power generation company in Southeast Asia. To fulfill its mandate of providing reliable, clean, and affordable energy to Indonesia, PLN IP needs to adopt a comprehensive strategy that balances renewable and fossil energy sources while considering its internal and external conditions. Although most of PLN IP's power plants are coal-based, it should support the government's efforts to increase the renewable energy mix and formulate effective strategies and roadmaps for the development of green and renewable energy through scenario planning. This approach allows PLN IP to anticipate and prepare for future uncertainties and make better-informed decisions to navigate the energy industry's rapidly changing landscape. After analysing the company's external conditions and examining the outcomes of the interviews, the driving forces that were identified as critical uncertainties are energy transition and electricity regulation, technology development, investment financing, electricity supply and demand, and fuel prices. Scenario planning was made based on the elaboration of all critical uncertainties but has one main driving force, resulting in the following five scenarios: Parking the Bus, which is driven mainly by Electricity Supply & Demand; Kick & Rush, which is driven mainly by a surge in fuel prices; Tiki Taka, which is driven mainly by a regulatory tug of war; Gegenpressing, which is driven mainly by the exponential advancement of renewable technology, and Catenaccio, which is driven mainly by a surge in investment funding. To anticipate the possible scenarios that may emerge, the early warning signals have been determined consisting of key leading indicators of driving factors. The ability to detect scenario trends swiftly is critical, as it enables policymakers to implement strategies earlier than their competitors. PLN IP shall adopt a balanced strategy that considers the company's internal and external conditions in each scenario to ensure sustainable operations while providing reliable, clean, and affordable electricity. The strategic imperatives shall focus on maintaining the operational excellence of existing power plants while also completing ongoing power plants projects, developing renewable energy power plants, and exploring beyond kwh business opportunities.