AIRPORT PASSENGER MOVEMENT FORECASTING USING DYNAMIC SYSTEM SIMULATION

• Main Author: Yusak Tarigan, Michael
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/76146
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Changes in flight service demand always occur. These changes happen because the demand system for flight services is highly complex. This system involves various geo-economic factors and service-related factors. Among these factors, there are also causal relationships (cause and effect). Understanding these changes or even the ability to forecast these changes would benefit stakeholders in the aviation industry. Commonly used forecasting methods, such as time series analysis, have significant limitations. These methods project trends from one time period into the future without considering the interactions between variables that occur within the system. Therefore, this research aims to develop a model for the dynamic system of flight service demand and to understand the characteristics of this model. Dynamic system simulation methods are used because they take into account all interactions between variables within the system. In this study, three models of the dynamic flight service demand system are developed for two case studies: Jendral Ahmad Yani International Airport and Zainuddin Abdul Madjid International Airport. Among these six models, one model exhibits good performance. Based on the analysis of the best models in both case studies, this model is found to be unstable and not fully controlled. Further research is needed to develop this method