SUSCEPTIBLE-INFECTED-REMOVED (SIR) MODEL AND INSURANCE PREMIUM CALCULATION FOR COVID-19 IN WEST JAVA PROVINCE

• Main Author: Christianto Firdaus, Yoel
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/76249
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Coronavirus Disease 19, or commonly called COVID-19, is a disease caused by the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. COVID- 19 attacks human’s respiratory system. This disease can spread through droplets from nose and mouth. The spread of the disease is very quick throughout the world. Therefore this disease causes the COVID-19 pandemic. With the occurrence of this pandemic, many countries were not ready to face this condition, resulting in losses in various sector, especially in the health sector. Every day, many people are infected and even die. Until now, there is no medicine that is 100% effective in treating COVID-19. Therefore, we also need to have a good immune system and do vaccination as a form of prevention. Besides generating bad impact in health sector, COVID-19 pandemic also causes bad impact in economy sector. One way to avoid this negative impact is to join the insurance program. Insurance works as risk management and has an objective of reducing the loss caused when infected with COVID-19. So insurance products should be calculated precisely. The spread of COVID-19 disease can be modeled by the SIR model. Modeling this spread is done by determining the transmission parameters and recovery parameters that best match the data. Determining the parameters are carried out using the least square method. The SIR model parameters are then used in the actuarial calculations, specifically the expected present value (EPV). After determining those values, premium values can be determined for various types of insurance products.