IDENTIFICATION OF EXTREME PRECIPITATION CHANGES DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN INDONESIA

• Main Author: Aminah, Siti
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Geologi, hidrologi & meteorologi
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/76450
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Global climate change can lead increased frequency of extreme events such as extreme precipitation and extreme air temperatures. One of the impacts of climate change is hydrometeorological hazards, which in recent decades there have seen an increase in extreme precipitation in many regions including Indonesia. The increase is projected to continue into the 21st century. This study will identify changes in extreme precipitation due to climate change in Indonesia. This study uses Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) precipitation data to identify changes in extreme precipitation both intensity and frequency. CMIP6 temperature data is used to identify changes in average temperature in Indonesia. Extreme precipitation calculations were performed using the Gumbel distribution and return period fitted to annual maxima data. Extreme precipitation and frequency of extreme events were compared between the historical period and the near-future period (2026–2055) and the far-future period (2070–2099) to identify changes. The results showed that there were changes in extreme precipitation in Indonesia both in intensity and frequency of occurrence. Extreme precipitation with a 5-year return period in Indonesia generally has a change value in the range of -5%/°C to +10%/°C with most areas likely to increase. The increase value reaches +15%/°C in the near-future period and +20%/°C in the far-future period. For the frequency of extreme precipitation above the 5-year return period in Indonesia, in general, the change value is in the range of -40%/°C to +80%/°C with most areas likely to increase. The increase value reaches +120%/°C in the near-future period and +160%/°C in the far-future period. In the higher emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), the areas with higher values of increase will expand both in change in intensity and frequency of occurence.