RISK ANALYSIS OF PT MERDEKA COPPER GOLD TBK STOCK PRICE USING DISCOUNTED CASH FLOW, MONTE CARLO SIMULATION, AND RELATIVE VALUATION

• Main Author: Khalid Al Ayyubi, Muhammad
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/76886
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Investing in the stock market is an activity full of risks. One of the mining companies that entered the stock market is PT Merdeka Copper Gold Tbk, with the stock symbol MDKA. Before making an investment, it is advisable to determine the proper stock price by valuing the intrinsic value of the stock to assess the risks involved in the investment. The valuation will be conducted using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method. To support the stock valuation, a Monte Carlo simulation will be conducted to analyze the uncertainty factors from historical data, and a Relative Valuation method will be used to assess the management factors by comparing them with similar companies. The intrinsic value of the stock from the Discounted Cash Flow valuation is Rp2,944.67, indicating an overvalued value since the market price at the closing price in June 2023 was Rp3,060.00. This is supported by the Monte Carlo simulation and Relative Valuation method. The statistical analysis from the Monte Carlo simulation shows an 80.2% probability that the stock price of MDKA is overvalued, evidenced by the stock price being below the market price. Similarly, the Relative Valuation indicates that MDKA's stock is overvalued and more expensive compared to similar companies. Therefore, it is recommended for investors to realize profits by selling or refraining from buying MDKA's stock.