ENVISIONING THE ELECTRICAL VEHICLE (EV) DIFFUSION AND DEVELOPMENT IN INDONESIA 2030: A SCENARIO PLANNING ANALYSIS

• Main Author: Pradikta Rahardjo, Ardha
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/76961
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Current trend shows that future vehicles will be more electrified since it is believed to be more beneficial both environmentally and economically. The trend was highly supported as many countries have strong intention to integrate EV in their transportation system by introducing some incentive and other policy interventions. Indonesia’s commitment for electrical vehicle is extended not only to accelerate EV diffusion but also to capture the value added in the whole battery and electric vehicle supply chain, considering Indonesia has both of raw material supply and captive automotive market. Effort for transport electrification and industrialization are expected to be progressed side-by-side. However, this generates more complexity to the system with many uncertainty factors. There has been limited understanding on how the interplay between factors may affect the possible future of EV development in Indonesia. A multi-stakeholder scenario planning was conducted to construct plausible future scenarios of electrical vehicle (EV) and battery development in Indonesia by 2030. The primary data for this study was gathered through semi-structured interviews with various experts in the field of study. The scenarios created include: 1) EV Niche Market, 2) EV Export Hub, 3) EV Market Pool and 4) EV Local Pride. The implications were explored in many keys area: traffic and environment, electricity and energy demand, economic growth, and impact on society. Options were also discussed for three key groups of stakeholders (policy maker, industry, and enablers) to respond in each future scenario.