THE DYNAMICS MODEL OF CHANGING POLITICAL CHOICES

• Main Author: Fauzil Adhim, Muhammad
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/77058
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Changes of voter political choices is a common thing in elections because voters have freedom to determine their political choices This final project research aims to form a mathematical model that can describe the dynamics of changing political choices in Indonesia with certain limitations. The model is constructed only based on interactions between voters in each categy, in wich voters classified into four categories, young voters who don’t vote, adult voters who don’t vote, party group A voters, and party group B voters. Parameter estimation is carried out by using nonlinear least squares method based on data obtained from Central Statistics Agency (BPS) and World Population Prospects (WPP) United Nations website. Analysis was carried out to determine equilibrium points and its stability, to see the effect of parameter changes on the fixed points and on the number voters in 2024, and to determine the Basic Reproduction Number (????0). Analysis shows that the adult voters who don’t vote tend to remain unvoting, while young voters are still dynamic in making their choice, then each voter from party group A will influence around six voters who have not yet made their choice to vote for party group A. In addition, the increase in the rate of change from each voters group to another voters group will provide an increase the number of party group B voters in the equilibrium state and make an increase in the number of party group A voters in 2024.