GAUSSIAN COPULA MODELING OF SPATIALLY AGGREGATED FINANCIAL LOSSES DUE TO EARTHQUAKES ALONG THE BARIBIS FAULT: A CASE STUDY ON BUILDING DAMAGE IN JAKARTA PROVINCE
Indonesia occupies a very active tectonic zone because it is surrounded by four major plates, namely the Eurasian plate, the Indo-Australian plate, the Philippine Sea plate, and the Pacific plate. The movement of the tectonic plates, which approach, move away, and shift from each other, causes th...
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| Format: | Theses |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Online Access: | https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/77495 |
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| Institution: | Institut Teknologi Bandung |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Summary: | Indonesia occupies a very active tectonic zone because it is surrounded by four
major plates, namely the Eurasian plate, the Indo-Australian plate, the Philippine
Sea plate, and the Pacific plate. The movement of the tectonic plates, which approach,
move away, and shift from each other, causes the formation of faults. The existence
of fault segments that cross the territory of Indonesia causes the occurrence of
earthquakes. The United Nation Office for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) states
that the highest number of disaster fatalities resulted from geophysical disasters
(earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanoes) despite the low frequency of occurrence. As
for the average financial loss due to earthquakes, Indonesia is ranked third highest
after Japan and the United States. The Earthquake Catastrophe (CAT) model is
used to model the risk of financial loss due to earthquakes along the Baribis fault
in the DKI Jakarta province. In this study, the areas to be observed consist of
South Jakarta, East Jakarta, and Central Jakarta. The purpose of this research
is to predict the spatial loss ratio of the observed areas due to earthquake events
along the Baribis fault. To predict the loss ratio, the loss ratio utilizes the hazard
module, inventory module, and vulnerability module. In determining the financial
loss, the aggregate loss model is used. Since the impact of financial loss due to the
Baribis fault is different in each area, it is necessary to analyze the dependency of the
aggregate loss given by each area. This study proposes a dependency model modeled
with a Gaussian copula. This model can provide information on the probability of
catastrophe and the area has the highest aggregate financial loss, i.e when considered
as an individual area, the South Jakarta (SA) provides a value of V aR0.95(SA) of
64, 938.67 (in million) and TV aR0.95(SA) of 92.828.52 (in million), considered from
the two areas combined, then South and East Jakarta (SA + SB) give a value of
V aR0.95(SA+SB) of 73, 384.91 (in million) and TV aR0.95(SA+SB) of 104.477.48
(in million), and considered from the combined three areas (SA + SB + SC) has a
value of V aR0.95(SA + SB + SC) of 81, 642.60 and TV aR0.95(SA + SB + SC) of
114, 082.34. |
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