STOCK VALUATION AND FINANCIAL ANALYSIS ON PT BUKIT ASAM DURING INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORT BAN POLICY IN 2022

• Main Author: Syafitri, Riza
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/77589
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The demand for coal in Indonesia and globally has risen in response to global population growth. Indonesia has relied heavily on coal as a primary fossil fuel and a vital element of its energy strategy since the 1970s. Indonesia is the largest exporter of thermal coal globally, having exported around 434 Mts in 2021. Its primary consumers include India, China, Japan, and South Korea. Indonesian coal mining companies are confronting a coal export prohibition due to insufficient domestic coal supply for PLN amidst the European energy crisis and the Ukraine-Russia crisis. To protect 10 million Indonesian households and businesses, the government must ban coal exports and require coal mining companies to sell 25% of their production at a lower price. The coal export ban may negatively impact the sales of coal mining companies, such as PTBA, and limit their potential to expand into Italy and Poland in 2022. The fair value of PTBA shares requires recalculation in light of potential factors impacting the company's valuation. The study will involve PESTEL analysis for external and financial performance and ratio analysis for internal analysis to assess PTBA's financial condition. DCF's absolute valuation model will assess the fair value of PTBA shares in early 2022. Sensitivity analysis is performed to identify the variables that have more of an effect on the company's valuation with the most sensitive affects to PTBA financial performance is perpetual growth rates. PTBA shares were valued at US $0.226 or Rp 3,293 using the DCF method in Q1 2022. A Monte Carlo Simulation will be performed to assess the value at risk and measure potential investment losses. A Monte Carlo Simulation was conducted at a 95% certainty level to determine the valuation range of shares, which was between -US $0.04 and US $0.45. Based on absolute valuation methods, PTBA's current stock is undervalued, indicating that investors who purchase at US $0.22 or Rp 3,393 may benefit