PERANCANGAN STRATEGIS INDUSTRI PETROKIMIA HULU DI INDONESIA MELALUI KAJIAN POTENSI PASAR DENGAN METODE VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE (VAR)

• Main Author: P. Tambunan, Samuel
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/77760
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The National Upstream Petrochemical Industry is considered a priority sector due to its significant potential for advancing Indonesia's economy. It is classified as a pioneering industry as it plays a vital role in sustaining downstream industrial activities. The demand for petrochemical products reached 6 million tons per year in 2019. However, only 60% of this demand was met domestically, with the rest being imported. The primary reason for this high level of imports is the lack of understanding among petrochemical industry players about the potential market within the National Upstream Petrochemical Industry in Indonesia. To address this issue, the author of this research will conduct a qualitative study on the current conditions and market potential of the National Upstream Petrochemical Industry using strategic planning methods to gain insights into the actual state of the industry. The analysis will be complemented by quantitative data processing using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) method to understand the growth potential of the National Upstream Petrochemical Industry and domestic demand for Petrochemical Upstream products. The VAR method was chosen for its research convenience and its ability to depict phenomena effectively compared to other multivariate regression methods. Based on the conducted research, it is found that the projected growth rate of the National Upstream Petrochemical Industry and the domestic demand for Petrochemical Upstream products is expected to be 7.2% and 4.9% CAGR respectively from 2022 to 2027. It is also concluded that the national economic growth, domestic demand for the National Upstream Petrochemical Industry, and household consumption in the past have positively influenced the growth of the National Upstream Petrochemical Industry. In the period from 2022 to 2027, recommended strategic approaches for the National Upstream Petrochemical Industry include focusing on penetrating the domestic market in Indonesia and investing in the development of production systems and business processes to enhance production efficiency and competitiveness.