DEMAND FORECASTING OF ZIRCON AS A RAW MATERIAL IN THE CERAMIC INDUSTRY IN INDONESIA.
Indonesia is a fourth zircon producer in the world and has enough zirconium resource potential. Until 2014 zircon exported as a raw material, that needs to be processed before it can be used by downstream industry. Domestic consumption of zircon is dominated by ceramic industry, around 88.24% from t...
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| Format: | Theses |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Online Access: | https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/78502 |
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| Institution: | Institut Teknologi Bandung |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Summary: | Indonesia is a fourth zircon producer in the world and has enough zirconium resource potential. Until 2014 zircon exported as a raw material, that needs to be processed before it can be used by downstream industry. Domestic consumption of zircon is dominated by ceramic industry, around 88.24% from the total Indonesian zircon consumption. However, the production capacity of Indonesia zircon plant can only supply 30% of total demand in ceramic industry. A demand forecasting of zircon in Indonesia is important as a basis for the government to make policies related to the processing of zircon ore in domestically.
Internationally, zircon consumption was under pressure in the year 2010-2013 due to the increasing price of zircon and the use of alumina as subtitute material in ceramics industry. The analysis of elasticities for linear demand function was conducted to see the effect of alumina on the demand of zircon in Indonesian ceramic industry. Two model of zircon demand are considered in this research, one model is influenced by subtitute material, i.e. alumina, whereas the other model is independen for subtitute material. Based on the analysis, alumina is subtitute of zircon but the best demand model of zircon that able to represent zircon consumption in industry ceramic Industry in Indonesia is the one that independent from subtitute material.
The demand of zircon in Indonesian ceramic industry is a function of total production of ceramic Indonesia, zircon price, Indonesia’s GDP, and consumption zircon in the preceding year. Forecasting is conducted by using econometrical model with ordinary least squares method. Forecast of zircon demand in Indonesia until 2019 are conducted according to 2 scenarios. The first scenario is forecasting zircon using historical data projection and the second scenario based on a target of economic growth and the industrial sector described in the document of Medium-Term National Development Plan (RPJMN). Scenario 1 shows that zircon demand for ceramic industry is around 40,813 tons in 2019. Scenario 2 shows that zircon demand for ceramic industry is about 45,102 tons in 2019. |
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