DRAMA-THEORY AGENT-BASED MODELLING ON INTERNATIONAL GLOBAL-WARMING POLICIES

• Main Author: Danang Bagus Sudarsono, Padang
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/78668
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Earth which functions as one ecosystem, is the only planet the human-race can consider home. Based on the understanding that the current global-warming is an unequivocal human-induced scientifically-proven on-going accelerating dangerous occurrence, the international community has a very serious planetary problem. However, recognising the matter is just the start since further real efforts face many obstacles. The Kyoto- Protocol marked an important historical point by providing a common-framework in the efforts to deal with global-warming. But such agreement is insufficient, since different countries have dissimilar policies concerning climate-change, often resulting in conflicts. This research aims to provide a common-framework with minimum conflict among the international community. Due to the complexities on the topic of this research, the usage of modelling is required. Worldwide countries can be modelled as agents, therefore in specific Agent-Based-Modelling is used in this thesis. Based on similar global-warming policies and regarding to the Kyoto-Protocol, countries of the world are clustered into somewhat factions, which are then modelled as agents. To deal with the differences among agents, Drama-Theory is used as the conflict analysing method. Through simulation, the current common-framework on policies still resulted in dilemmas among countries, proofing as obstacles in the efforts to stop the existing climate-change. To reduce dilemmas. agents need to change (preferences toward) policies, or (in a drama-theory term) a new common-framework is required. However to construct such, there are many possibilities, too many for manual analyses. To avoid inefficiency, an alternative simulation is used. As the result there are several new zero-dilemma common-frameworks. However most are tragedies, with only one new framework normatively acceptable. Even more, to realise such, further actions by agents are suggested.