SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DYNAMICS OF THE SPREAD OF DENGUE HEMORRHAGIC FEVER USING EPIDEMIC FOREST
Dengue fever outbreaks are a major public health issue in the Philippines, occurring almost every year during specific seasons. While dengue fever is endemic throughout the country, only a few regions record higher case numbers or even initiate outbreaks significantly earlier than others. This ev...
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| Format: | Theses |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Online Access: | https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/79307 |
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| Institution: | Institut Teknologi Bandung |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Summary: | Dengue fever outbreaks are a major public health issue in the Philippines, occurring
almost every year during specific seasons. While dengue fever is endemic throughout
the country, only a few regions record higher case numbers or even initiate
outbreaks significantly earlier than others. This evidence presents a challenge for
researchers and policymakers in comprehending the spatiotemporal transmission of
dengue fever. This study focuses on clinical data related to dengue fever in several
provinces in the Philippines, including North Cotabato, South Cotabato, Sarangani,
Sultan Kudarat, Agusan Del Norte, Agusan Del Sur, Dinagat Islands, Surigao
Del Norte, and Surigao Del Sur. From these nine provinces, we conduct city-level
analyses, revealing that cities with higher case counts tend to experience outbreaks
earlier and have the potential to transmit the disease to other areas. Furthermore,
we construct an epidemic forest to estimate the spatial patterns of dengue fever
spread during each outbreak period, allowing us to infer which areas are infecting
other areas. In each outbreak period, the models consistently show that highland
areas dominated by forests are the primary sources of endemic cases. One possible
explanation for this finding is that forests, in general, provide a climate conducive
to mosquito survival. |
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