VULNERABILITY AND RISK ASSESSMENT OF COASTAL HAZARDS DUE TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE REGION OF PENAJAM PASER UTARA REGENCY AND BALIKPAPAN CITY

• Main Author: Maharani, Dini
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/79544
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

This study aims to assess vulnerability and risks due to climate change in Penajam Paser Utara Regency and Balikpapan City, especially in the coastal sector. Climate change has the potential to introduce two main hazards: coastal inundation and coastal instability related to beach erosion and sedimentation. Considerations regarding coastal vulnerability, hazards, and risks are relevant in light of the current acceleration of infrastructure development. This study focuses on projecting vulnerability and coastal hazard risks from 2025 to 2045, utilizing six threat scenarios due to sea-level rise. The objective is to identify regions in Penajam Paser Utara Regency and Balikpapan City with significant vulnerability and risk potentials. In this study, climate change-induced coastal inundation hazards are represented by factors such as Total Mean Level (TML) changes, tidal influence, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and storm surges. Hazard scenarios are constructed through data analysis to measure the potential threats due to sea-level rise and also considering annual land-based flood factors. Coastal vulnerability projections rely on the Coastal Vulnerability Index method, while land vulnerability is measured through the Land Vulnerability Index method. Comparative analysis of SPL and SSL data revealed a positive correlation, indicating the influence of climate change on sea level rise in Penajam Paser Utara District and Balikpapan City. Hazard factors that have the most impact on sea level rise are HHWL (161 cm), Storm surge (77 cm) and inland flooding (42 and 85 cm). The hazard projection results show that scenario 6 has a very high hazard level, with heights ranging from 241 to 375 cm (relative to MSL). Analysis of coastal vulnerability map using CVI method shows that the areas with high vulnerability category (rank 4) are Penajam sub-district (10,08 km, 48%) and West Balikpapan sub-district (16,37 km, 58%) and land vulnerability shows that most areas in these two districts have very low vulnerability, related to high topography, gentle slope, and low population. The combination of hazard and vulnerability values results in a risk projection which shows that the areas of Penajam Paser Utara District and Balikpapan City have a low level of risk to sea level rise.