SCENARIO PLANNING: HOW CHANGES OF PENSION PAYMENT SCHEME FROM PAY AS YOU GO TO FULLY FUNDED WILL AFFECT BANK SUGURU IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS

• Main Author: Pratomo Priambodo, Pintyo
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/79903
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

As Indonesian demographics shift towards an aging population, governments and regulatory bodies are re-evaluating pension systems to ensure long-term sustainability. Pension systems are undergoing significant reforms, including adjustments to funding regulations, payment scheme, and changes in pension benefits. These changes have the potential to affect Bank Suguru in various ways, such as through their portfolio quality, risk exposure, and financial stability. This study explores how Bank Suguru may be affected by shifts from Pay As You Go pension scheme to Fully Funded pension scheme. With this upcoming condition, Bank Suguru need to establish strategies that can overcome any challenges that will occur in the near future. This study employs the scenario planning method to assess the potential impact by identifying the most uncertain and the most important factors that drive this changes. Based on in-depth interviews and analysis with subject matter expert, the two main change factors identified were government’s regulation towards pension system and Indonesia’s economic growth. Four nation theme scenario narratives was developed to give a clear picture regarding the future direction of the Indonesia’s pension landscape. By understanding the challenges and opportunities in each scenarios presented, Bank Suguru can proactively strategize to align their services with the changing retirement landscape, thereby enhancing their competitiveness and better serving the needs of pensioners and future retirees in Indonesia.