REPRODUCTION NUMBERS OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE MODELS (CASE STUDY : ARI DISEASE SPREAD IN DKI JAKARTA PROVINCE)

• Main Author: Ayu Saptyaningtyas, Diah
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/79906
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

The basic reproduction number R0 is an important concept in epidemiology to measure the potential spread of infectious diseases in a population. This thesis analyses the calculation of the R0 value in the SEIRD (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Recovered, Death) compartment model of ARI cases in DKI Jakarta Province using the Next Generation Matrix method. Then the parameter sensitivity analysis is carried out on the value of R0 . The parameter ?, which is the transmission rate, has the highest sensitivity index, indicating that R0 is very sensitive over changes in the value of ?. This study explores the effect of the R0 value on the spread of infectious diseases with three categories of ARI cases, namely ARI Cases of Toddlers, ARI Cases of Age > 5 Years, and Total ARI Cases, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.The results of the analysis of cases of ARI in children under five years before the pandemic, Kepulauan Seribu and East Jakarta have R0 > 1, while during the pandemic the value ofR0 < 1in all areas of DKI Jakarta, indicating that the spread of ARI in children under five years can be controlled. ARI cases aged > 5 years show the potential for faster and wider spread during a pandemic in several regions. Total ARI cases show differences distribution in various regions before and during the pandemic, with a downward trend in R0 values in Kepulauan Seribu and East Jakarta during the pandemic. In general, there is an increase in the R0 value during the pandemic, which reflects a higher potential for the spread of ARI. This is because the SARS-CoV 19 virus is one of the viruses that causes ARI disease so that, attention is needed in efforts to prevent and control ARI disease. Implementation of strategies such as health counselling, vaccination, and nutritional monitoring can be carried out as an effort to control the R0 value thereby reducing the risk of spreading ARI disease.