IDENTIFICATION OF THE IMPACT OF EL NIÑOAND LAND USE CHANGES ON FOOD AVAILABILITY IN CIREBON REGENCY

• Main Author: Dinan, Rois
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Perencanaan wilayah
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/80919
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Agriculture is a cultivation activity that aims to produce food as a source of energy for humans. Therefore, because it is responsible for human food needs, agriculture is very important for life. The importance of the agricultural sector is also enshrined in one of the points in sustainable development, which is explicitly in goal 2 where food security and sustainable agriculture are points that must be implemented to achieve sustainable development. However, problems related to food security are experienced by many countries in the world. Climate change is a factor that has a major influence on food agricultural production in the world. According to a report from FAO, climate variability and extremes are significant drivers of increased global hunger. Climate change has a direct impact on food crop production, with an estimated 3.1%-7.4% reduction in global yields for every one degree Celsius increase in global average temperature. Changes in land use patterns over time also play an important role in weakening food security. In most cases, land conversion is a normal condition and is usually influenced by the development dynamics of a city or region. However, problems arise when the dynamics of urban or regional development consume productive and productively sustainable agricultural land. If land conversion continues to occur on potential land, it will adversely affect the food security of a region, where the real impact of land conversion can be permanent and there is very little probability of returning to agricultural land with the same productivity as before.. Cirebon Regency is the scope of study in this research. This is because in existing conditions Cirebon Regency produces food, in this case rice, amounting to 494,700 tons. Cirebon Regency is one of the areas with the 7th largest contribution to rice production in West Java, with a contribution of 5.24%. One of the reasons why Cirebon District was chosen as a study location is because of the impact seen when the El Niñoclimate change phenomenon occurs. compared to other areas in West Java. In addition to climate change factors, land use change factors are also one of the issues that occur in Cirebon Regency. Urban activities that occur in the city of Cirebon have resulted in urban sprawl in sub-districts that are directly adjacent to the city of Cirebon. More than 450 hectares of paddy fields have been converted in Cirebon Regency. the majority of this land useiv change is in the form of changing paddy fields into settlements or other built-up uses. Because of these problems, this research will identify food availability in Cirebon Regency by considering 2 impacts, namely land use change or conversion and the impact of the El Niño phenomenon. The influence of land use change on food availability will be identified by modeling land cover projections in 2023-2043, to determine the amount of remaining paddy fields in that year range in 5-year intervals. The analysis method used is Artificial Neural Network-Cellular Automata (ANNCA). The ANN-CA model uses an artificial neural network using a number of neurons to simulate various changes in land use. This is done by using a model that predicts land use conversion over the next 20 years. In addition, climate change factors are also used as an impact on food availability in Cirebon Regency. The impact of the El Niño phenomenon is historically captured and implemented in the food availability modeling scenario with the assumption that the phenomenon occurs in the projection year. In this study, it was found that the variable land use change and climate change such as the El Niño phenomenon had a significant impact on the weak availability of food which resulted in the potential for a food crisis in the near future in Cirebon Regency if the existing dynamics continued. Therefore, adaptation efforts are needed to prevent the food crisis from occurring in Cirebon District. protection of agricultural lands in Cirebon District must be further enhanced, especially on food agricultural lands that have high productivity. In addition, the variable occurrence of the El Niño phenomenon or climate change is one that has a major contribution to the decline in productivity which has a direct impact on food availability, this needs an alternative solution if one day the phenomenon occurs. Drought is a result of this phenomenon and has an impact on irrigation of agricultural land. Therefore, agricultural irrigation facilities must have alternatives that can be used for agricultural purposes at any time, especially when the phenomenon of drought due to climate change occurs.