LOAN SCHEMES MODEL FOR ENGLISH FOOTBALL PREMIER LEAGUE TEAM IN THE 2023-24 SEASON

• Main Author: Antonius, Enrico
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/81550
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Football, or American say soccer, is the most popular sport in the world. Millions of people worldwide are avid followers of football, eagerly keeping up with the latest developments, including their favourite players, the most exciting ongoing competitions, supporting their beloved teams, and much more. The immense popularity of football has a ripple effect on the massive flow of money, and consequently driving up the operational costs of running a football team. That problem will lead a football team needs a loan funds to operating that team in one season. Of course, the lender is needed to observe the credit risk of every team who will borrow the money. Because of that, a loan scheme model is needed by lender to know the credit risk in this scheme. This thesis will focus on the English Premier League as the competition under consideration due to its significant financial turnover, English Premier League’s outstanding achievements in European competition from the 2018-19 to 2022-23 seasons, and the availability of comprehensive data required for data modelling. With some financial historic data from a football team, such as income from English Premier League authority, TV rights, final ranking in English Premier League, ticket revenue, sponsorship fees, and merchandise revenue, also outcome for team salaries and bonuses, maintenance fee for the facilities, travel expense, and expenditure of player transfer will lead to a good loan scheme for a English Premier League team. However, many teams fail to provide complete access to the required data, necessitating the assistance of third parties in completing this thesis. Beside that, a Monte Carlo Simulation is needed to estimate final ranking of 2023-24 English Premier League to estimate the income of that English Premier League team. The simulation for English Premier League will be simulated 200 times, with the mode of the rankings for each team in the 2023-24 season being used as the result. The purpose of this is to obtain the mode of the rankings for each team, ensuring convergence. In predict the final standing of English Premier League, the 20 teams of English Premier League divided by 3 groups, that is the team who always play in English Premier League and play regularly in European championships, the team who always play in English Premier League but not play regularly in European championships, and the team who not always play in English Premier League and not play regularly in European championships. In this thesis, the model for final standing got a good result because the prediction was match for majority of team, with exception for the group of teams who not always play in English Premier League and not play regularly in European championships, Everton, and Wolverhampton. From the result of final standing of English Premier League, the data of financial income and outcome can be obtained and will lead to get the maximum value of loan funds for an English Premier League team to increase their quality of team for the 2023-24 season. In this thesis, the group contain teams who always play in English Premier League but not play regularly in European championships will give the lender the biggest profit percentage because teams in this group generate more revenue from selling players than they spend on buying players. Additionally, these teams also receive substantial income from stadium ticket sales.