DYNAMICS OF CYBER VIRUS SPREAD WITH UNIFORM ATTACK: SIR MODEL APPROACH WITH PROTECTION PARAMETERS AND ITS APPLICATION IN INSURANCE

• Main Author: Mardianissa, Alyah
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/81776
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Rapidly evolving technology, digitalization, and globalization significantly increase cyber risks, bringing huge impacts to companies such as privacy breaches, trade barriers, and economic losses. Cyberattacks, both intentional and planned, can spread rapidly and widely. In this undergraduate thesis, a systemic cyber attack will be simulated to a system of five sectors: mining, manufacturing, energy, construction and service sector. Cyber virus spread models such as Susceptible Infected Recovered (SIR), which are commonly used for diseases, can be modified to multi-group SIR to describe the population of computer more accurately. The simulation of switching between states in this model is numerically solved. Protection and renewal rates are formulated to reduce the number of infections and prevent population extinction. If a cyber attack cannot be prevented, the risk of loss can be transferred to a cyber insurance company. The insurance premium can be calculated based on the total loss and the addition of the risk loadings of standard deviation. The results of a cyberattack protection scenario and premium calculation show that sectors with larger total infected losses will pay higher premiums.