PROYEKSI NILAI LIMPASAN DAN DEBIT DENGAN MEMPERTIMBANGKAN PERUBAHAN LKLIM DAN PENGGUNAAN LAHAN MENGGUNAKAN SOIL & WATER ASSESSMENT TOOL, STATISTICAL DOWNSCALLING MODEL, DAN CA-MARKOV MODEL DI DAYEUHKOLOT PADA TAHUN 2045

• Main Author: Putra Kunigara, Andika
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/82245
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Climate change and land use alterations significantly impact the speed and intensity of hydrological cycles in the sub-watersheds of Citarik, Cisangkuy, Cikapundung, and Cirasea, which are integral parts of the Citarum Watershed. The Citarum Watershed is among the fifteen priority watersheds for restoration due to continuous degradation caused by land-use conversion, leading to a decline in soil infiltration capacity for rainfall and increasing the vulnerability of low-lying areas in the Bandung Basin to floods. One of the frequently flood-affected areas in the Bandung Basin is the Dayeuhkolot District. Therefore, analyzing runoff and streamflow values in the future holds significant importance. In this study, simulations were conducted for land use changes from 2022 to 2045, considering the potential alteration of a pixel during specific events based on the conditions in the preceding event. The study also examined changes in pixel status over time or in predefined scenarios, including neighboring cells, using the CA-Markov model. Additionally, the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) was employed to predict local weather by transforming climate information from a global scale (such as outputs from global climate models) to a regional or local scale. Subsequently, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used for hydrological modeling to determine runoff and streamflow values in the study area. The research findings indicate that changes in land use and local weather contribute to a 19.06% increase in annual runoff under RCP 2.6, a 20.11% increase under RCP 4.5, and a 24.42% increase under RCP 8.5, compared to the values in 2022. Furthermore, an elevation in streamflow is predicted for each climate scenario, with an increase of 80.59%, 84.44% under RCP 4.5, and 91.84% under RCP 8.5 when compared to the data 2022 and 2045.