IDENTIFICATION OF FUTURE CHANGES IN INDONESIA'S EXTREME PRECIPITATION PATTERNS

• Main Author: Putri Minanda, Safinka
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/82388
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Indonesia has a tropical climate and geographical location that makes the region vulnerable to extreme precipitation that can trigger hydrometeorological disasters such as floods. Information on extreme precipitation patterns is essential for flood early warning, infrastructure planning and disaster management. Therefore, this study aims to identify changes in Indonesia's extreme precipitation frequency patterns in the future. The research method includes the calculation of extreme precipitation with a return period of 2 years using the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) type I distribution, calculation of extreme precipitation frequency, grouping regions based on extreme precipitation frequency patterns using the clustering method, and identification of changes in extreme precipitation patterns. The data used is a climate model sourced from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The results of this study indicate that there are changes in extreme precipitation patterns in Indonesia with changes in the area of each type. The majority of the largest changes occur in the far-future period with the SSP2-4.5 scenario. There is also a significant change in the mean annual cycle of extreme precipitation frequency, with the highest change in the far-future period using the SSP5-8.5 scenario. Type A experienced a decrease in area of 16.6%. Meanwhile, Type B experienced an increase in area of 15%. Then, Type C also experienced an increase in area of 1.6%. The change in the average annual cycle of extreme precipitation frequency is smallest for Type C (2.3 days), followed by Type A (3.2 days) and Type B (4.0 days).