ASSASMENT OF COASTAL VULNERABILITY IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE AND RISKS DUE TO COASTAL INUNDATION IN SURABAYA AND SIDOARJO CITIES

• Main Author: Ghiyar Nur Muhammad, Sulthan
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/82562
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

East Java Province is a province that directly borders the Java Sea, Bali Strait, and the Indian Ocean. Due to its geographical location adjacent to these waters, East Java Province is vulnerable to rising sea levels, such as coastal inundation. This study aims to assess the coastal vulnerability of East Java Province and the hazards, risks, and impacts on infrastructure due to inundation in the cities of Surabaya and Sidoarjo by 2045. In its analysis, vulnerability is divided into two methods: the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) and the land vulnerability index (LVI). The inundation hazard projection is conducted using the bathtub model. The projection will be conducted in four scenarios, considering seven parameters that can influence sea level rise: high high water level (HHWL), monthly MSL variation, La Niña, storm surge, negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), sea level rise, and inland flooding. Based on the CVI calculations, the coastal vulnerability of East Java Province is predominantly at a very high level, with 685.73 km of coastline (33.4%). The inundation projection is carried out in Surabaya and Sidoarjo, which have a very high level of vulnerability. The inundation projection results show that the inundation area in Surabaya reaches 7,759.52 hectares in scenario 1, 13,426.18 hectares in scenario 2, 18,833.58 hectares in scenario 3, and 19,419.52 hectares in scenario 4. Meanwhile, the inundation area in Sidoarjo Regency reaches 23,586.1 hectares in scenario 1, 28,382.82 hectares in scenario 2, 33,028.48 hectares in scenario 3, and 33,766.06 hectares in scenario 4. The most significant factor influencing the high inundation is the tidal level (HHWL) at 162.71 meters. As a result of the high inundation, approximately 2,000 km of roads and about 5,000 buildings are expected to be submerged in Surabaya and Sidoarjo by 2045.