MATHEMATICAL MODEL OF DENGUE TRANSMISSION IN BANDUNG CITY WITH HUMAN MOBILITY CONSIDERATION

• Main Author: Raynaldo Septyawan, Stefanus
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/83131
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

From 2024 until the 22nd week, Indonesia experienced a surge in dengue infection cases, with Bandung and parts of DKI Jakarta among the top five contributors of the highest dengue cases. The current ease of access and variety of transportation modes have made human mobility between these two cities wellconnected. Therefore, human mobility between Bandung and Jakarta is an important and intriguing consideration in research related to the spread of dengue, particularly in Bandung. This study examines the dynamics of dengue transmission in Bandung City by considering human mobility between Bandung and Jakarta, utilizing vehicles via the toll access available in Bandung. A dengue transmission model for Bandung was constructed using the SEIR-UV host-vector compartment model, which incorporates parameter for the proportion of human mobility between Bandung and Jakarta. A cumulative approach was used to derive the model analytical solution and dengue infection rate by defining a cumulative generator operator. Multilogistic functions with six logistic terms was chosen to fit the weekly cumulative data of dengue incidence in Bandung and Jakarta from 2017 to 2019. Numerical simulations of the dengue infected human population in Bandung showed a good fit with the weekly incidence data for Bandung from 2017 to 2019, while the impact of human mobility was explored through numerical simulations of the infection rate and the effective reproduction number of dengue in Bandung. The results of numerical simulations using three mobility scenarios indicate that the potential for dengue spread in Bandung tends to increase when the number of people moving out of the city rises. However, the potential for dengue spread tends to decrease when the number of people entering the city increases.