SCENARIO PLANNING FOR STRATEGIC DECISION- MAKING IN CAPTIVE POWER PLANT: A CASE STUDY OF PT KPC FACING GLOBAL NET ZERO EMISSION CHALLENGES BEYOND 2031

• Main Author: Azhar, Muhammad
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Manajemen umum
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/83829
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

PT Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC) faces significant challenges with its captive power plant amidst Indonesia's commitment to achieving net zero emissions by 2060. Various driving forces is creating uncertainty and impacting the sustainability of KPC's coal-fired power plant. This study addresses these challenges by employing a comprehensive scenario planning approach to identify critical uncertainties, develop plausible future scenarios, and propose actionable strategic recommendations. The aim is to provide KPC with a robust framework to navigate these uncertainties while ensuring compliance with evolving regulations and maintaining operational efficiency. The research objectives are to pinpoint the driving forces that lead to uncertainty, create plausible scenarios for KPC's future operations, and formulate strategic recommendations. A qualitative methodology is used, integrating primary data from surveys, interviews, and focus group discussions with secondary data from government publications, academic journals, and industry reports. The scenario planning process follows five stages: orientation, exploration, scenario creation, consideration, and integration. This approach identifies two critical uncertainties— coal price fluctuations and carbon regulation variations—which form the basis for four scenarios: Double-Edged Sword, Silver Lining, Perfect Storm, and Golden Era. Each scenario provides unique implications for KPC's operations, financial stability, and regulatory compliance. The study's findings suggest that enhancing operational efficiency, adopting biomass co-firing, and engaging in carbon credits and offset projects are viable strategies across all scenarios. These strategies aim to reduce costs and emissions, leverage existing infrastructure, and ensure regulatory compliance. This research contributes to strategic management in the energy sector by demonstrating the effectiveness of scenario planning in addressing uncertainties related to climate change and regulatory changes. By implementing these recommendations and monitoring early warning signals, PT KPC's captive power plant can better prepare for future uncertainties, align with Indonesia’s Net Zero Emission goals beyond 2031, and maintain resilience and competitiveness during global energy transitions