MODEL OF CANDIDATE VOTERS BEHAVIOUR IN INDONESIA PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION

• Main Author: Arista, Rinda
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/83890
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

General election is an electoral process to choose public officials in democratic country, including Indonesia. Candidates efforts to gain voter during elections resemble the spreading of infectious diseases. Candidates and their supporters try to influence people, including campaign to become winners. In this study, will be constructed a mathematical model that describes the behavioral conditions from one of candidates supporters in Presidential Election involving three compartments. Then the parameter values that match the conditions of each candidate in the 2024 Indonesian Presidential Election will be determined using the nonlinear Least Square method. The parameters that influence the increase in the proportion of supporters for each candidate will also be determined. From the study, it was found that the rate of individual transmission from the supporter compartment who came into contact with superspreader supporter individuals and became ordinary supporters had the most influence on increasing the proportion of the number of supporters. Meanwhile, the rate of individuals leaving the ordinary supporters compartment and become non-supporters is the parameter that has the most influence on decreasing the proportion of the number of supporters. Hopefully, the results obtained can help candidates in determining campaign strategies to increase their chances to win the contest.