A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL FOR ROOFTOP SOLAR PV SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN INDONESIA

• Main Author: Agustar, Ari
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/84051
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Indonesia declared its commitment in the Paris Agreement (COP 21) to combat climate change due to excessive carbon emissions by limiting global average temperature rise to 1.5 oC above the pre-industrial level, and Indonesia submitted its first NDC target in 2030 of 29% GHG emission reduction. This target is then translated into a renewable energy target in RUPTL 2021-2030 where solar PV accounts for 4,68 GW. Despite Indonesia’s enormous solar energy potential, up to 208 GW in RUEN or even bigger, up to 559 GWp according to MEMR, Indonesia’s total installed capacity of rooftop solar PV is very low and far from the ministry’s target of 3,6 GW in 2025 or RUPTL target 4,68 GW. Residential rooftop solar PV development is considered a complex situation involving many stakeholders with their own various interests. This study uses the system dynamics approach to develop an assessment model to evaluate the policies’ impact on residential rooftop solar PV system adoption. A literature review, stakeholder’s analysis, and PESTEL analysis were conducted to identify potential variables related to residential rooftop solar PV development and create a rich picture diagram to understand the interrelationships between the variables. Data were collected through stakeholders’ interviews as the primary source and through published papers or journals, government reports, or NGOs reports as secondary sources. 16 key variables were identified based on data gathering, and then the causal loop diagram (CLD) was developed using these variables. The CLD is then transformed into a stock and flow diagram (SFD) using the software Vensim PLE 10.1.3, which is used to simulate several policies’ scenarios related to residential rooftop solar PV adoption and CO2 emissions reduction. Ten scenarios were simulated in this study involving three groups of interventions: initial net metering tariff, reduction on initial solar PV cost, upper limit of ROI, and combination of initial net metering tariff and initial solar PV cost reduction. This study is based on MEMR Regulation No. 49/2018, which applies net metering scheme with 65% multiplier factors for the excess electricity exported into the PLN’s grid. Although the latest MEMR Regulation no. 02/2024 has been issued recently, however, is not considered in this study. The Structure of the model was validated by interviewing some stakeholders and comparing it with the actual case, and the model’s behavior was validated by comparing the actual data between 2018 and 2021 with the model’s predicted outcome. The ten scenarios were simulated between 2022 and 2030, with the results of the predicted solar PV installation in 2030 ranging from 2,74 GW – 7,72 GW. This numbers mean residential rooftop solar PV has the potential to meet the solar PV target in RUPTL 2021-2030. A combination of increasing the net metering tariff to 80% and the iii initial cost reduction of 30% has the highest potential for solar PV installations, the highest CO2 emissions reduction, and the lowest accumulation cost of net metering in 2030. This study can be used as a reference by policymakers in Indonesia to formulate the optimum policy to boost rooftop solar PV growth, as the simulations show that residential rooftop solar PV, with the right intervention, can meet the government’s target of rooftop solar PV in 2030