IMPACT OF ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE ON DROUGHT HAZARD IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND AUSTRALIA

• Main Author: Ningrum, Umiati
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/84273
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

In Southeast Asia and Australia (2001–2021), drought hazard levels have varied from low to very high. Globally, drought trends are expected to continue increasing due to anthropogenic climate change. This study aims to determine the impact of anthropogenic climate change on drought hazards in Southeast Asia and Australia in the future, based on changes in drought frequency, as well as the magnitude and extent of drought hazards. This study uses rainfall data from 11 CMIP6 climate models for the historical period (1985–2014), near-future (2031–2060), and far-future (2061–2090) with SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios. The methods used include calculating the SPI, calculating the frequency of each SPI drought class, determining weights and ratings, calculating the DHI or drought hazard magnitude, calculating the area extent of each drought hazard level, and calculating changes in drought frequency, magnitude, and area extent of drought hazards. The research results indicate that in most of Australia and small parts of southern and northern Southeast Asia, during the near-future and far-future periods under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios, there is a potential increase in the frequency of 3-month and 6-month droughts, with moderate droughts increasing by 5 to more than 25 times, severe droughts by 5–25 times, and extreme droughts by 1–25 times, and an increase in the magnitude of drought hazards ranging from 3– 15 from the initial historical magnitude of 7–20, resulting in future drought hazard levels ranging from moderate to very high, with the highest increases occurring in western and southwestern Australia. Furthermore, in Southeast Asia and Australia, the area extent of low drought hazard is expected to decrease by 2.4–3 million km², moderate hazard areas to decrease by 1.5–2.1 million km² and increase by 1.2–2.3 million km², high hazard areas to increase by 1.2–2.4 million km², and very high hazard areas to decrease by 316–665 thousand km² and increase by 1.9–3.8 million km².