IDENTIFYING CHANGES IN THE MOISTURE BUDGET IN THE MARITIME CONTINENT DURING THE ASIAN WINTER MONSOON

• Main Author: Permata Sandi, Rekha
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/84275
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Global warming is causing changes in atmospheric moisture and monsoon circulation. The monsoon is the dominant wind circulation in the Maritime Continent region of Indonesia. Globally, monsoon circulation is indicated to weaken due to global warming. However, regionally, monsoons show varying changes. Therefore, this study aims to examine changes in the moisture budget over the Maritime Continent during the Asian winter monsoon in historical and future periods. The methods used include calculating moisture transport, the moisture budget, and changes in the moisture budget in the future. Additionally, this study also performs a model consensus on the increase in moisture transport. The data used are from the ECMWF Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA5) and climate models from the Couple Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6). The research results show that during the Asian winter monsoon, there are two moisture entry pathways into the Indonesian region, indicating consistency between observations and historical models. In the future period, the consensus of 2 out of 3 models indicates that the largest moisture surplus change occurs in regions B, D, and E, which are identified as moisture entry pathways. In the near future period, region B experiences an increase in moisture surplus (+63.5 ??? ???), region D experiences a decrease in moisture surplus (-19.65 ??? ??? ), and region E experiences an increase in moisture surplus (+38.45 ??? ???). In the far future period, region B experiences a decrease in moisture surplus (-48.35 ??? ???), region D experiences an increase in moisture surplus (+50.2 ??? ???), and region E experiences a decrease in moisture surplus (-55.15 ??? ???)