QUANTIFICATION OF CONTROLLED FLIGHT INTO TERRAIN ACCIDENT PROBABILITY BASED ON FLIGHT OPERATIONAL DATA

• Main Author: Aulia Soegiharto, Fikri
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Teknik (Rekayasa, enjinering dan kegiatan berkaitan)
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/84395
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Aviation safety is always improving. However, current methods can only evaluate the safety carried on past operations. As a result, there is a need for models that can predict how likely it is for airplanes to get into accidents. This need is even stronger now that individual airlines must set their own Acceptable Level of Safety Performance (ALoSP). This study investigates the relation between contributing factors identified through an aircraft physics model for Controlled Flight into Terrain (CFIT) events. The model incorporates propulsive, gravitational, and aerodynamic forces acting on the aircraft based on incident-free flight data. Contributing factors are extracted from the data to establish their probability distribution. These factors are then integrated into the model to compute the probability of CFIT using Subset Simulation. The Subset Simulation results yield a probability value of 1.20E-04 for CFIT events. After the probability is obtained, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to identify the factor contributing most significantly to CFIT events. It is found that flight path angle is the most influential contributing factor. Based on these insights, airlines are recommended to implement a target flight path angle of -3° during approach to enhance operational safety and potentially mitigate future CFIT occurrences.