STOCK VALUATION OF HEAVY EQUIPMENT COMPANY IN INDONESIA : IMPACT OF COAL PRICE VOLATILITY

• Main Author: Nur Cahyadi, Nanang
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Manajemen umum
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/84585
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Coal price recorded it’s one of the highest marks in the last decades. Indonesia as one of the leading producers of coal in the world impacted from this condition. Industries related to the energy business will benefit from this situation. One of the industries influenced by this fluctuation is heavy equipment industries. A change in price will increase demand and naturally the company will be increasing its production capacity. Increasing capacity means increasing needs for heavy equipment. Among the heavy equipment industries, there are three main company with highest market capitalization based on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. There are PT United Tractors, Tbk. (UNTR), PT Hexindo Perkasa, Tbk. (HEXA), and PT Kobexindo Tractors, Tbk. (KOBX) with total approximate market of 98.083 billion IDR. The coal price volatility will impact the company’s intrinsic value and, in the end, will impact the equity value that could be a major consideration to investing on the stock market. In the other side, coal price will not stay for long therefore there are potential high volitality that will impact the company value. Analysis will be conducted to find the regression between coal price and this company revenue. Then valuation is conducted using dcf analysis and fair comparison analysis to find the company fair value. This value was also tested using sensitivity analysis based on several main contribution factors to the company equity value. Monte Carlo Simulation was also conducted to seek not only deterministic results, but probability result on how the company equity value. The result is only KOBX that have high dependance on the coal price volitality while other companies did not have linier regression outcomes. With potential decreasing coal price, DCF analysis forecasted the valuation of KOBX in the end of 2022 are IDR 96 while the fair-comparison resulted valuation of IDR 91. Monte Carlo Simulation resulted on mean shre price of IDR 68 with standard deviation of IDR 310 due to high volitatility on the factors. This result could be used as one of investment consideration to KOBX in the stock market.