ANALYSIS OF THE INDEPENDENT INFLUENCE OF EL NIÑO AND POSITIVE IOD ON DROUGHT IN INDONESIA

• Main Author: Pitrania, Erinda
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/84977
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Indonesia, which is flanked by two oceans, the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, has a climate that is influenced by changes in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in both oceans. SST changes in the Pacific Ocean are known as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), while those in the Indian Ocean are known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). When SSTs in the Pacific Ocean are warmer than average, the phenomenon is known as El Niño. Conversely, when temperatures in the western part of the Indian Ocean are cooler than the eastern part, it is referred to as a Positive IOD phenomenon. El Niño and Positive IOD can cause drought in Indonesia by reducing rainfall. This study aims to identify the independen influence of El Niño and Positive IOD on drought in Indonesia without considering the phase of ENSO/IOD. The method used is multiple linear regression to obtain the regression coefficient value of the El Niño and Positive IOD variables then the value is filtered with a p-value <0,05. The results show that El Niño generally affects almost all parts of Indonesia, while Positive IOD has a stronger influence in the western part of Indonesia. El Niño and Positive IOD independenly show more widespread influence during the 12-month drought period (SPI-12). The influence is less during the 3-month (SPI-3) and 6- month (SPI-6) drought periods.