THE INFLUENCE OF ENSO AND IOD ON EXTREME RAINFALL IN INDONESIA IN THE FUTURE
Indonesia, as a maritime country straddling the equator and is located between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, is vulnerable to environmental disasters such as floods and landslides due to extreme rainfall. Overall, Indonesia’s average rainfall is influenced by interannual climate variations, s...
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| Format: | Final Project |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Online Access: | https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/84995 |
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| Institution: | Institut Teknologi Bandung |
| Language: | Indonesia |
| Summary: | Indonesia, as a maritime country straddling the equator and is located between the
Indian and Pacific Oceans, is vulnerable to environmental disasters such as floods
and landslides due to extreme rainfall. Overall, Indonesia’s average rainfall is
influenced by interannual climate variations, such as the El Niño-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), with the greatest impact
occurring during the SON season. This study aims to identify future changes in the
influence of ENSO and IOD on extreme rainfall in Indonesia, specifically during
the SON season.
This study utilizes rainfall and sea surface temperature data form the CMIP6
climate model for the historical period (1985-2014) and future projections for the
near-future (2031-2060) and far-future (2061-2090) under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-
8.5 climate scenarios. The methodology includes model evaluation using three
statistical metrics, calculation of extreme rainfall using R95p index, calculation of
the ENSO index using ONI, calculation of the IOD index using DMI, and analysis
of the relationship between ENSO and IOD on extreme rainfall through linear
regression.
The results indicate that the changes in the influence of ENSO and IOD on extreme
rainfall in Indonesia in the near-future period tends to be negative across most
regions, except for Java, which shows positive changes. In the far-future period, the
influence of ENSO in certain areas Kalimantan and IOD in southern Sumatra
become positive. After removing the effects of ENSO and IOD separately, a complex
relationship between the two becomes evident. For example, in the future period,
the independent IOD has a value change in the southern region of Kalimantan from
negative to positive. Significant changes due to ENSO and IOD on extreme rainfall
are observed in North Kalimantan, reaching -80 mm/? due to ENSO and -180 mm/?
due to IOD. These changes are projected to become more pronounced under the
SSP5-8.5 climate change scenario. |
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