AGRICULTURAL LAND CONVERSION VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS BASED ON SIMULATION OF PROJECTED LAND COVER CHANGE IN KARAWANG REGENCY

• Main Author: Firdaus, Raihan
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Perencanaan wilayah
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/85099
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Karawang Regency is recognized as one of the national rice granaries as a result of its remarkably productive agricultural land. However, the sustainability of this productivity has been jeopardized by notable changes in land cover in recent years. The practice of converting agricultural land into urban areas is a major danger to the goals of national food security. The objectives of this study are to evaluate the susceptibility of agricultural land in Food Crop Areas to land use conversion, identify changes in land cover from 2013 to 2023, and determine the factors that influenced these changes. Additionally, model scenarios of future land cover changes will be created. One of the techniques involves utilizing Landsat 8 satellite imagery analysis with support vector machine algorithm to classify the imagery into four groups: built-up regions, water bodies, forests, and agricultural. The results of a literature review are used to identify the elements that drive changes in land cover, and these findings are then tested using binary logistic regression. Land cover change modeling for 2031 and 2043 uses the Land Change Modeler (LCM). Projection models employ three modeling scenarios: business as usual (BAU), economic growth (ED), and agricultural land protection (LSD). The Karawang Regency primarily used its agricultural land for agriculture from 2013 to 2023, but its conversion to built-up areas has caused it to trend lower. The identified significant driving factors consisted of surface temperature, proximity to built-up areas, neighboring cell adjacency to built-up areas, and distance from factories. The Land Change Modeler results indicate that without intervention, agricultural land conversion will continue to increase, which could occur in protected paddy fields and result in reducing productive agricultural land and threatening food security. The ED scenario shows accelerated land conversion due to economic pressures, particularly affecting Protected Rice Fields, whereas the LSD scenario demonstrates that effective agricultural land protection can reduce vulnerability and control the direction of land cover change. This research contributes to spatial planning and controlling agricultural land use conversion. By understanding the driving factors behind land cover change and utilizing scenario modeling, localvi governments can design more effective policies to protect agricultural land and ensure food security in Karawang Regency