STOCK VALUATION OF PT BANK SYARIAH INDONESIA TBK: THE PLANNED ENTRY OF STRATEGIC INVESTORS FROM THE MIDDLE EAST

• Main Author: Lesmana Wibowo, Andika
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Manajemen umum
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/87186
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Indonesia is the country with the second largest Muslim population in the world. According to the State of the Global Islamic Economy (SGIE) Report, Indonesia's Islamic market will be the third largest globally by 2023, behind Malaysia and Saudi Arabia. Therefore, to accelerate the halal ecosystem's growth, the government, through the Ministry of State-Owned Enterprises (BUMN), is establishing PT Bank Syariah Indonesia Tbk (BSI). After opening a branch in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, BSI plans to open a branch in Saudi Arabia soon. Strategic investors are needed for BSI to be able to access the Middle East financial market, especially Saudi Arabia. The Ministry of SOEs encourages BSI to look for strategic partners, namely by looking for investors from the Middle East to increase value creation and following BSI's vision to become a top ten global Islamic bank. Investors need information and analysis regarding the potential benefits that will be obtained before deciding to invest in BSI. The first objective of this study is to compare BSI's performance with the banking industry using the competitor analysis matrix method. Second, to analyze macroenvironmental aspects using the PESTLE and Porter's Five Forces methods. Third, to evaluate BSI shares using the excess return valuation method, asset-based valuation to determine the intrinsic value using discounted cash flow method (DCF) with excess return model and assetbased valuation and relative valuation using the PER and PBV comparison to top ten bank-based on asset. The results of the competitor analysis matrix study, show BSI got a score of 4,61 which means BSI's performance is above the industry average. Based on the macroenvironmental analysis both PESTLE and Porter's Five Forces strongly support BSI in the future. Especially the strong support from the government to develop the halal ecosystem. As competition among banks is strong, BSI needs to continue to innovate products and services as well as loyalty programs to maintain competitiveness in the market. Based on the calculation of intrinsic value using the excess return model method by implementing three scenarios. Based on the projection results, the intrinsic value of BRIS in the best scenario was IDR 2.949, the moderate was IDR 2.435, and the worst was IDR 2.101. Based on the calculation of intrinsic value using the asset-based model, the resulting intrinsic value is IDR 2.616 per share. The average price to earnings ratio of the ten largest banks is 11,08 while BRIS is 19,05 and the average price to book value (PBV) ratio is 1,76 while BRIS is 3,05. Based on the results of the Monte Carlo simulation, the peak point was obtained at around 2.000–2.500, indicating that most simulation results predict stock prices in this range. The mean value of all simulation results is IDR 2.718. Share price BRIS per 11 Nov 2024 of IDR 2.820 per share, based on simulation upside probability 35%.