VISION FOR INDONESIA’S 2050 POWER GENERATION: SCENARIOS OF HYDROGEN INTEGRATION, NUCLEAR ENERGY PROSPECTS, AND COAL PHASE-OUT IMPACT

• Main Author: Wijayanto, Tito
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Manajemen umum
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/87199
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Indonesia, the world’s fourth most populous country, faces rising energy demand, expected to grow by 4.9% annually. Currently, the country’s energy mix relies heavily on fossil fuels, particularly coal, with annual production reaching 615 million tons, placing Indonesia among the world's top coal producers. However, concerns over coal’s environmental impact have prompted the government to target the early retirement of coal-fired power plants (CFPP) by 2030, aiming to replace the energy gap with renewable sources. This shift will require retiring the existing CFPP and expanding renewable energy production, potentially involving hydrogen and nuclear power. Hydrogen is emerging as a key alternative to traditional fuels because of its environmentally friendly profile. The global hydrogen market is expected to reach USD 201 billion, growing at 9.2% annually. With an energy density of 142 kJ/g, hydrogen has high potential, though green hydrogen remains costly at USD 312/kg. On the contrary, nuclear energy also offers a solution, with Indonesia having a roadmap for nuclear power since 2006. According to the National Electricity General Plan (RUKN), the country has significant reserves of thorium and uranium, suitable for nuclear energy. However, the feasibility of integrating hydrogen and nuclear power into Indonesia’s energy mix requires thorough investigation. This study intends to develop a comprehensive model of Indonesia’s power generation between 2024 and 2050 to understand the dynamics of energy utilization by 2050. The Low Emission Analysis Platform (LEAP) software will be utilized to project the future of energy generation through four different scenarios with several different focus on expected RUPTL plan, coal-phase out, and the use of unique renewable sources utilization. To date, there is no extensive research using LEAP focused on simulating the potential impact of hydrogen incorporation and coal phase-out policy on Indonesia’s 2050 power generation system. For the simulation, specific energy-related data such as Indonesia’s load curve and intermittent renewable energy curve for Indonesia will be utilized to provide a comprehensive analysis. The scenarios simulated inside this study are projected into four different scenarios, which is the Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario, the hydrogen incorporation (HYD) scenario, the coal-phase out scenario (CPO), and the progressive (PRO) scenario. BAU Scenario models how power generation expansion will result if it completely complies to PLN’s RUPTL 2021-2030. This scenario also acts as the reference scenarios for other available scenarios, where there is no additional policy from government. By 2050, capacity will reach 399.1 GW with an energy output of 1090.71 TWh. Investment needs are estimated at 101.8 billion USD from 2024 to 2050. It is shown that the largest contributor of renewable energies is hydropower and geothermal with respective output of 27.24% and 20.60% in 2050, which shown the solver’s focus on accommodating the lowest-cost energy sources. However, the planned coal phase-out in Indonesia introduces significant risks to its implementation. HYD Scenario aims to incorporates green hydrogen from solar PV, following the Indonesian Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy (IFHE) roadmap, targeting 1-5% of energy consumption from hydrogen by 2050. Capacity is expected to hit 429.1 GW with 1090.71 TWh technological output, requiring 116.2 billion USD in investments by 2050. This scenario fulfilled IFHE hydrogen roadmap target of hydrogen contributing between 1-5% of Indonesia’s energy demand, which is done with 3.73% contribution by 2050. Additionally, the share of renewable sources is rising from 13.6% in 2024 to 83.8% in 2050. CPO Scenario plan to gradually decommissioning CFPP from 2030 until their complete phase-out by 2055. By 2050, capacity is forecasted at 406.9 GW, with technological output of 1090.71 TWh, and total investment of 114.6 billion USD. coal’s share dropping significantly after 2036. From the scenario, coal power plant holds the highest share of electricity spanning between 2024 and 2036 but experience a sharp decline thereafter, with hydropower and geothermal sources taking over. The CPO scenario stands out as the most feasible option through the investment perspective when taking the coal phase-out policy into account. PRO Scenario emphasizes stable renewable sources like geothermal, hydropower, and nuclear energy while phasing out coal. By 2050, total capacity will be 367.1 GW, with investment requirements reaching 151.4 billion USD. Although geothermal and hydropower capacity plateaus, nuclear’s efficiency stands out, contributing 29.54% of energy with only 12.8% of total capacity, highlighting its high output relative to investment costs. This research offers two novelties compared to previous research. Firstly, it specifically models unique sources of energy in the forms of hydrogen between 2024 and 2050. Second, it provides a model for Indonesia’s power sector that account the 2030 coal-phase out. The findings of this study will provide a new perspective on the output of current Indonesia’s energy policy and help the stakeholders and policymakers to understand the feasibility and economic implication of the coal-phase out and transition to renewable energy.