THE DYNAMIC OF URBAN DEVELOPMENT AND ITS IMPLICATION FOR FOOD CARRYING CAPACITY IN INDRAMAYU REGENCY

• Main Author: Patmawati Wisnu Murti, Ratna
• Format: Theses
• Language: Indonesia
• Subjects: Perencanaan wilayah
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/87525
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Urban development in Indonesia is characterised by urbanization, increased economic activity, and land-use conversion, driving the transformation of ruralurban spaces. Indramayu Regency faces significant challenges due to the development of the Rebana Region, which has spurred the conversion of agricultural land. This study aims to analyze the dynamics of urban development in Indramayu Regency and its impact on land-use change and food security. The analysis focuses on physical, economic, and demographic aspects, using data on built-up areas, land cover, population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), rice production, and regional development policies. The Cellular Automata model was employed to predict future land-cover changes. The results reveal an increase in built-up areas by 3,090.88 hectares (an average annual growth of 4.10%) and a reduction in non-built-up land by 3,019.47 hectares (an average annual decline of 0.4%). Economic growth reached 8.33%, driven primarily by the manufacturing and agricultural sectors, which are the largest contributor to GDP. Population growth averaged 1.25% annually, with urban population growth at 0.66%, indicating a low level of urbanization. Land-cover projections under a business-as-usual scenario predict that built-up land will expand to 27,627.26 hectares (13.34%) by 2044, while agricultural land will decrease to 138,478.38 hectares (66.86%). Under the Industrial Estate (KPI) development scenario, built-up areas will rise to 46,227.26 hectares (22.32%) by 2044, resulting in a further reduction of agricultural land to 127,198.09 hectares (61.42%). Rice production in Indramayu Regency currently averages 998,681.58 tons, with all districts demonstrating high levels of food security. However, longterm projections indicate a significant decline in agricultural productivity due to the conversion of agricultural land. Strategic measures are urgently needed to control land-use conversion, including accelerating the formulation of Detailed Spatial Plans (RDTR) as a framework for monitoring and controlling land use, revising regulations on agricultural land protection, providing incentives for farmers, and strengthening institutional capacity for spatial management.