SENTIMENT DYNAMICS ANALYSIS ON MAPB.JK STOCK PRICE MOVEMENT USING GATED RECURRENT UNIT (GRU)

• Main Author: Maulia Listiani, Ariqah
• Format: Final Project
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/87875
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

This study examines the relationship between public sentiment toward products managed by PT MAP Boga Adiperkasa Tbk, including Starbucks, Krispy Kreme, Pizza Marzano, Godiva Chocolate, Paul Bakery, Cold Stone, Genki Sushi, and Subway, and the company's stock price movement (MAPB.JK) using an econophysics approach in complex systems physics. Sentiment data were sourced from platform X (Twitter), and stock price data from Yahoo Finance, covering January 2, 2023, to September 30, 2024. Sentiments were categorized as positive, neutral, or negative, while stock price predictions were performed using a Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) model. Results show neutral sentiment dominates (4,814 tweets), with positive and negative sentiments at 626 and 286 tweets, respectively. The GRU model performed well, achieving an MSE of 0.03, RMSE of 0.06, MAE of 0.04, SMAPE of 19.59%, and R² of 0.89. However, the Pearson correlation coefficient of -0.0629 indicates a very weak link between sentiment and stock prices. These findings highlight the stock market as a complex system where stock prices are influenced by multiple non-linear factors, with public sentiment as a minor contributor. Further studies should incorporate additional variables for more robust modeling.