#TITLE_ALTERNATIVE#

• Main Author: NURAINI (NIM 30103001), NUNING
• Format: Dissertations
• Language: Indonesia
• Online Access: https://digilib.itb.ac.id/gdl/view/8853
• Institution: Institut Teknologi Bandung

Dengue Fever (DF) and Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF) are caused by Dengue virus and transmitted to human population through the bites of Dengue infected female mosquitoes of Aedes aegypti. These diseases are important public health problems in Indonesia, causing many endemic areas throughout the country for many years with high level of fatalities. The objective of this study is to develop some mathematical models using dynamical system approach for the spread of DF and DHF diseases among population (transmission model), as well as within a human body (internal model). In the transmission model, the analysis focuses on four vaccination scenarios with two strains of virus, in which the human population is divided into eight compartments (susceptible, primary infection for strain 1 and 2, temporary recovery from strain 1 and 2, secondary infection for strain 1 and 2, and severe DHF), and the vector population consists of two compartments (infected vector for strain 1 and 2). Four vaccination scenarios are being considered, i.e using tetravalent vaccine for newborn baby, tetravalent vaccine for susceptible host, bivalent vaccine for newborn baby and bivalent vaccine for all compartment. It is shown that the basic reproduction ratio for the transmission model is reduced significantly by incorporating the vaccination scenarios. The best result for ratio of severe DHF compartment before and after vaccination is shown for susceptible host tetravalent vaccine. This ratio is also needed for practical control measure in order to predict the "real" intensity of the endemic phenomena, since only data of severe DHF compartment is available from the hospital. There are four equilibria of the transmission model, i.e the disease free equilibrium, the endemic one with strain 1 only, the endemic one with strain 2 only, and the coexistence of the two strains. As the proportion of vaccination increases, the size of the endemic equilibria for tetravalent vaccine is reduced. In bivalent vaccine for all compartment, the infected individual will stay longer in the infection period if the worsening effect less than infection period rate. For practical application in the field, the initial early warning system software, based on person index data input, is established. By developing the software and completing the realistic value of parameter, the software can be used as an excellent early warning system for transmission model. The internal model is intended to capture phenomena that Dengue virus is cleared quickly in approximately 7 days after the onset of the symptoms. The models are divided into two classes, i.e. with and without immune response. There are two equilibria of internal model without immune response, the free-virus equilibrium and the endemic virus equilibrium and three equilibria of internal model with immune response i.e the free-virus equilibrium, the absence of immune response equilibrium and the endemic virus equilibrium. The basic reproduction ratio of the internal model without immune response is reduced significantly by incorporating the immune response. These facts are confirmed by the numerical simulation for some parameters values.