KLASIFIKASI KEJADIAN DIFTERI DI KABUPATEN BANGKALAN DENGAN PENDEKATAN REGRESI LOGISTIK, KLASIFIKASI POHON, DAN MULTIVARIATE ADAPTIVE REGRESSION SPLINE (MARS)
Diphtheria is an endemic disease that widelyspread in many developing countries. South East Asia Region (SEAROi always rank first in most diphtheria cases in the world. Back in 2012, diphtheria was spread in 19 provinces. East Java had the most number compared to other provinces, with 955 cases....
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Format: | Theses and Dissertations NonPeerReviewed |
Language: | Indonesian Indonesian |
Published: |
2016
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://repository.unair.ac.id/45473/13/213.%20ABSTRAK.pdf http://repository.unair.ac.id/45473/19/TKM.09-16%20Zur%20k.pdf http://repository.unair.ac.id/45473/ http://lib.unair.ac.id |
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Institution: | Universitas Airlangga |
Language: | Indonesian Indonesian |
Summary: | Diphtheria is an endemic disease that widelyspread in many developing
countries. South East Asia Region (SEAROi always rank first in most diphtheria
cases in the world. Back in 2012, diphtheria was spread in 19 provinces. East Java
had the most number compared to other provinces, with 955 cases. In 2013,
Bangkalan district came in second after Surabaya city, reaching 76 cases includng
4 mortalities. Thus, diphtheria problem deserves attention in order to predict
future incidence of diphtheria in Bangkalan district.There are many risk factors
that influence the incidence of diphtheria. In this study, the classification of
diphtheria incidence were done using logistic regression, classification trees and
MARS to determine the most significant characteristics and factors. After the
classification it is found that from all 5 predictor variables, 3 most significant
factors were contact, behavior and mobilization.
Logistic regression model showed that the percentage of those without
diphtheria (sensitivity) was 91.7% vs those with diphtheria (specificity), 47.2%.
Classification trees resulted in sensitivity of 79.2 % and specificity of 69.4%.
Meanwhile, MARS model showed 90.3% sensitivity and 55.6 % specificity. From
this study, MARS has the most accurate classification with 78.7%. |
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