KAJIAN JUDGMENTAL BIASES PADA ESTIMASI DURASI AKTIVITAS PROYEK TEKNOLOGI INFORMASI (STUDY OF JUDGMENTAL BIASES ON ACTIVITY DURATION ESTIMATIONS OF INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY PROJECTS)

• Main Authors: , DWI HANDAYANI, , Budi Hartono,S.T, MPM, Ph.D
• Format: Theses and Dissertations NonPeerReviewed
• Published: [Yogyakarta] : Universitas Gadjah Mada 2012
• Subjects: ETD
• Online Access: https://repository.ugm.ac.id/100945/; http://etd.ugm.ac.id/index.php?mod=penelitian_detail&sub=PenelitianDetail&act=view&typ=html&buku_id=57225
• Institution: Universitas Gadjah Mada

Projects are activities those are unique and have time limits, the fact that the project was unique cause the historical data is not available, therefore project practitioneers frequently use experience judgment to estimate the duration of a project. The previous researches show that judgmental biases occure frequently on the experience judgment. Some research about judgmental biases that have been carried out outside Indonesia using individual and group respondents and nonmanagement project field, some similar researches have been conducted in Indonesia in management project field with only individual respondent. Therefore, this research studies about judgmental biases in management project field using both individual and group respondents. This research applied survey method involving 30 experience respondents and 30 in-experience respondents to estimate overall project time and activity project time of some IT projects by using two estimation methods, individual interviews and interactive groups. The result shows that, systematic bias has occured between the estimated and actual condition of the opinions of experience and in-experience in individual decission. Significant accuracy differences appear between experience and inexperience. Overall project time estimation and activities project time estimastion on experience interactive group decision can help to prevent the bias, disaggregation and interactive group methods can help to prevent biases on experience judgment. On in-experience judgment, interactive group methods can help to prevent the biases but disaggregation method can�t prevent the biases. for inexperience respondents, an anchoring question (time to complete the tesis) has a significant correlation to the estimation of the project duration while another question (time to walk from Yogyakarta to Jakarta) does not have a significant correlation. Most of the respondents are overconfidence when estimate range of the project duration.