ANALISIS FAKTOR INTERNAL DAN EKSTERNAL PENYEBAB INSTABILITAS EKSPOR

• Main Authors: , Haryono Subiyakto, Drs.,SE.,M.Si., , Prf. Dr. Iswardono, S. Permono, MA.
• Format: Theses and Dissertations NonPeerReviewed
• Published: [Yogyakarta] : Universitas Gadjah Mada 2013
• Subjects: ETD
• Online Access: https://repository.ugm.ac.id/120278/; http://etd.ugm.ac.id/index.php?mod=penelitian_detail&sub=PenelitianDetail&act=view&typ=html&buku_id=60300
• Institution: Universitas Gadjah Mada

This disertation analysis factors thought to influnce the Indonesian export instability. Uptill now, the causes of export instability have not been known certainly, so that policy makers are not easy to define strategies for coping with export instability. Previous findings related to the causes of export instability showed different results. The purpose of this dissertation is to identify the factors that have influenced the Indonesian export instability and find analytical model that can be used to analyze the factors that influence the Indonesian export instability. This dissertation research was conducted in Indonesia by using time series data in the second quarter of 1999 to the fourth quarter of 2007. Data were taken from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the Ministry of Industry, Ministry of Commerce, Bank Indonesia (BI), United Nations, World Bank, International Monetary Fund (IMF), the World Trade Organization (WTO), International Financial Statistics (IFS), Central European Initiative (CEI), Economics web Institute, India's Central Statistics, and World Monthly Data (Japan). In this dissertation, there is one dependent variable, namely instability of Indonesian exports and 45 independent variables thought to influence the Indonesian export instability. Econometric analysis used in this dissertation is the general to specific modeling (GSM). The results of this dissertation can be divided into two, namely the estimated shortterm and long-term estimates. In the short-term factors that affect Indonesia's exports instability are instability Indonesian exports in the previous period, Indonesia's gross domestic product growth in the previous period, the share of Indonesian exports, the price variation within the United States, and Malaysia export instability. In the long-term factors that influence the instability of exports of Indonesia are Indonesia's gross domestic product growth, the share of Indonesian exports, the price variation within the United States, and Malaysia Export instability. United States and Malaysia are the two main importers Indonsia export commodities, in addition to Japan, China, Singapore, South Korea, and India. Variation in domestic prices and export instability of the main importers are the factors that influence the export instability and have not been observed by other researchers.