ANALISIS SIKLUS BISNIS DAN INDIKATOR EKONOMI PENDAHULU INDONESIA TAHUN 2001:Q1-2013:Q4: METODE GROWTH RATE CYCLE

• Main Authors: , MARTHA HINDRIYANI, , Sri Adiningsih, Prof., Dr., M.Sc.
• Format: Theses and Dissertations NonPeerReviewed
• Published: [Yogyakarta] : Universitas Gadjah Mada 2014
• Subjects: ETD
• Online Access: https://repository.ugm.ac.id/129787/; http://etd.ugm.ac.id/index.php?mod=penelitian_detail&sub=PenelitianDetail&act=view&typ=html&buku_id=70185
• Institution: Universitas Gadjah Mada

The idea of business cycle is not new in economic theory. Progressive fluctuation has sparked uncertainty in economic indicators, therefore it is important to way to predict fluctuations in Indonesia�s economic growth. Business cycle can be used as early warning system to predict the economic indicators. According to business cycle, this research will build leading economic indicators compare to a country�s economic. Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) is a composite of macroeconomic indicator that indicate some specific economic variables to forecast economic activity and business cycle movement which was approached with the growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) using the growth rate cycle method. This study uses secondary data. The observations are quarterly data starting from the first quarter of 2001 to the fourth quarter of 2013 with constituent variables: the number of domestic departure passengers, cement consumption, stock market capitalization Indonesia, Hang Seng index, NYSE index, FTSE100 index, IHSG, and the total of export. The method used in this study is seasonally adjustment process time series in the program Census X-12 ARIMA and band-pass filter of Christiano-Fitzgerald to get the business cycle of GDP and LEI series. Leading economic indicators result successfully showed cross-correlation coefficient of 0.54. Keywords: early warning system, business cycle, leading economic indicator, economic growth, growth rate cycle, seasonal adjustment, band-pass filter Christiano-Fitzgerald.