PREDIKSI JUMLAH KEBUTUHAN GAS ELPIJI MENGGUNAKAN SUPPORT VECTOR REGRESSION (SVR) (Studi Kasus : Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta)

• Main Authors: , Lisna Zahrotun, , Dr. Azhari M.T
• Format: Theses and Dissertations NonPeerReviewed
• Published: [Yogyakarta] : Universitas Gadjah Mada 2014
• Subjects: ETD
• Online Access: https://repository.ugm.ac.id/130611/; http://etd.ugm.ac.id/index.php?mod=penelitian_detail&sub=PenelitianDetail&act=view&typ=html&buku_id=71037
• Institution: Universitas Gadjah Mada

As the number of families and the local economy then surely demand for LPG will increase. Therefore we need prediction to account for the use of LPG and LPG supplies proposed subsidy amount of gas demand for the next year in order to avoid shortage of LPG gas. In this research doing prediction of the ammount of gas LPG needed using Support Vector Regression (SVR) in Daerah Istimewa Yogyakarta. Prediction of the amount of gas LPG using input indicators are the amount of income per capita, the number of families and the number of small and medium enterprises. The number of initial data used as many as 25 data from 2007 to 2011 for the five districts in the province. The kernel used is a linear kernel and polynomial kernel. As for the value of the formula used MAPE error. From the simulation results predicted number system needs of the entire data LPG obtained the best value for each county is different. Kulon Progro obtained from Linear kernel with 23.03% error values, while four other districts to obtain the best value of the polynomial kernel with error value Bantul 8.79 %, Gunung Kidul 10.23%, Yogyakarta 19.29% and Sleman 12.17%. In the prediction system required amount of LPG found 3 results of modeling that has no effect on the amount of income per capita, the number of families and the number of small and medium enterprises to total LPG requirement of 5 modeling conducted for 5 counties, this is evidenced by the Fisher F test .