PEMODELAN SPASIAL PERUBAHAN PENGGUNAAN LAHAN AKIBAT GENANG PASANG AIR LAUT DI KECAMATAN ASEMROWO, KOTA SURABAYA

• Main Authors: , Widiyanto Hari S.W., , Prof. Dr. Sunarto, MS.
• Format: Theses and Dissertations NonPeerReviewed
• Published: [Yogyakarta] : Universitas Gadjah Mada 2014
• Subjects: ETD
• Online Access: https://repository.ugm.ac.id/130773/; http://etd.ugm.ac.id/index.php?mod=penelitian_detail&sub=PenelitianDetail&act=view&typ=html&buku_id=71202
• Institution: Universitas Gadjah Mada

Asemrowo District has stagnant growth due to the influence of the tide inundation resulting a decreasing value of the land (RDTRK UP Tambak Osowilangun, 2007. The decreasing of land value in Asemrowo District causing lost interest of land in Asemrowo District. Stagnant condition of structure and city morphology is potential to change due to development of a new growth center such Teluk Lamong Port (Pelindo III). Based on what those problems, this research aims to predict future land use that accommodate inhibiting factor such as tidal inundation and also the driving force (Pelabuhan Pelindo III) using Markov methods � cellular automata. Markov- cellular automata is one of many kinds of artificial intelligence using the iteration calculation on a raster data as its basic. Iteration which is conducted on raster data of land use conversion is formulated from multi driving factor of land use change and multi constraint factor of land use conversion. The amount of pixels used on the iteration process is analyzed by using Markov analysis. In formulating land use change probability maps, logistic regression method and artificial neural network is used. In this research the final year prediction is the year of 2030. Tidal inundation has a positive correlation towards the land use conversion to industry and warehousing, rural settlement, and ponds by 21%, 20%, and 22%. The Port of plan Teluk Lamong Port has a positive correlation on land use conversion to become urban settlement, industry and warehousing by 61% and 42% in Asemrowo District. Based on 2030 land use change prediction map, it has been identified extensive addition or subtraction on each class of land use. The land use that experience space addition are urban facility (2.348 m2), industrial and warehousing (2.379.720 m2), trading and services (227.709 m2), rural settlement (19.480 m2) and the decreasing space of land use are experienced by urban settlement (271.054 m²), RTH (167 m²), scrubs (1.507.690 m²) dan ponds (848.044 m²).