KAJIAN JUDGMENTAL BIASES PADA ESTIMASI WAKTU PROYEK PENELITIAN

• Main Authors: , YOPIE YUTAMA SURBAKTI, , Budi Hartono, ST., MPM., Ph.D.
• Format: Theses and Dissertations NonPeerReviewed
• Published: [Yogyakarta] : Universitas Gadjah Mada 2014
• Subjects: ETD
• Online Access: https://repository.ugm.ac.id/130908/; http://etd.ugm.ac.id/index.php?mod=penelitian_detail&sub=PenelitianDetail&act=view&typ=html&buku_id=71341
• Institution: Universitas Gadjah Mada

Project is characterized by its uniqueness and complexity. Hence, the availability of historical data is very limited to be analyzed. So, project practitioners often use intuitive or subjective judgment for analysis that causes systematic errors (biases). This research is focused in identifying possibility of judgmental biases when project practitioners estimate durations of projects. The duration estimation of project is carried out by expert and non-expert estimators. Expert estimators are students� supervisors and non-expert estimators are students doing researches in final assignment projects. The purposes of this research are to explore the possible existence of accuracy biases in project estimations and overconfidence biases using statistical analysis and another purpose is to develop some models in describing relationship between actual duration of project with student�s Grade Point Average (GPA) using regression and the complexity of the project itself using principal component and exploratory factor analysis within multivariate analysis. The other purpose of these methods are to define the underlying structure and relationship among the variables of complexity of the project. The method used in this study is a questionnaire that used to survey and observe the level of complexity of the research project. The questionnaire is aimed at the both groups of novice and expert before the novice group (students) doing their research. The results of this study is the possible of bias or systematic error was found in this study and the bias shows a negative or aggressive bias in both groups of both novice and expert with -2.77 in mean and 1.61 in standard deviation on the novice group and with -2.74 in mean and 3.13 in standard deviation on the expert group. This study found an overconfidence factor in the ability estimation. The study also found a nonlinear regression model between the actual duration of the research project with the complexity of the research project and also the relationship between grade point average (GPA) with the actual duration of the research project. Actual time data distribution pattern follows the distribution of 3 � Parameter Log � logistic and Johnson�s Transformation with p-value 0.544 including their parameter: shape (α) 4.0646, location (γ) 1.3766 and Scale (β) 5.7167. This study also did not find an exact model on estimating the actual duration of the research project.