ANALISIS RISIKO DAN KETIDAKPASTIAN PENDAPATAN USAHATANI JAMBU BIJI PADA INTEGRATED FARMING SYSTEM (IFS) DENGAN METODE SIMULASI MONTE CARLO (Studi Kasus Sentra Jambu Biji Getas Merah Kab. Kendal)

• Main Authors: , MUHAMMAD NAUFAL RIFKI, , Prof. Ir. Panut Mulyono, M.Eng., D.Eng.
• Format: Theses and Dissertations NonPeerReviewed
• Published: [Yogyakarta] : Universitas Gadjah Mada 2014
• Subjects: ETD
• Online Access: https://repository.ugm.ac.id/133953/; http://etd.ugm.ac.id/index.php?mod=penelitian_detail&sub=PenelitianDetail&act=view&typ=html&buku_id=74872
• Institution: Universitas Gadjah Mada

Generally, risk factors in farming consist of risk in production process and price risk, and sales. The risk and uncertainty of of lambo guava farming affected on declining income of farmer that used as capital to sustain the farming. Through the application of the concept of integrated farming system, namely the development of an integration model crop - livestock waste that used as a production input to minimize the risk. This research have purposed to analyze risk level and income uncertainty of lambo guava farming, calculate the amount of the probability of risks and uncertainty and its impact on farmers income, and diversification development through the application of the concept of integrated farming system to minimize risk and uncertainty. This study used income analyses to determine the profit income. Meanwhile, to measure the level of risk and uncertainty using Monte Carlo simulation method. The simulation results showed in statistical test, if the value of coefficient variation was low, then the risk will be small. The result showed that total income average from lambo guava farming was IDR 22,537,837 with a variation coefficient value was 0.4266 that indicates a very high risk. Distribution of opportunities by determining the upper limit of 22,537,837 generated 52.09%. When compared to the lower limit of 22,537,837 reaches 47.91%. The implication is there is opportunity to earn high profits. Through the application of integrated farming system, coefficient of variation obtained lower value of 0.0409. The lower coefficient variation value which indicates that the level of risk that happening is small.