GDC-UTP ELECTRICITY FORECASTING USING FUZZY SYSTEM

• Main Author: Nordin, Farah Tasya
• Format: Final Year Project
• Language: English
• Published: Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS 2011
• Subjects: TK Electrical engineering. Electronics Nuclear engineering
• Online Access: http://utpedia.utp.edu.my/10488/1/2011%20-%20GDC-UTP%20Electricity%20Forecasting%20using%20Fuzzy%20System.pdf; http://utpedia.utp.edu.my/10488/
• Institution: Universiti Teknologi Petronas

This report represents the approach for short term load forecasting by using fuzzy logic approach. As depicted in Chapter I, in order for Gas District Cooling to operate at maximum efficiency and minimum generating costs, it must be able to forecast the load demanded by the sole customer, University Teknologi PETRONAS. Based on the literature review in Chapter 2, there are several fuctors that affect the forecasting such as weather condition, the type offorecast day and history of the load demand. In Chapter 3 of this report, this project proposes a load forecasting method by using fuzzy logic approach, based on similar days to obtain the next week's forecasted load. The fuzzyTECH software is used to develop a week-week-ahead load forecasting model together with Microsoft Excel as data interface. The test result, as shown in in Chapter 4, show that the proposed forecasting method could provide a considerable improvement of the forecasting accuracy especially as it shows how to reduce forecast error. Several recommendations for future improvements are included in Chapter 5. The suitability of the proposed approach is illustrated through an application to actual load data of the Gas District Cooling ofUniversity Teknologi PETRONAS.